Friday, November 7, 2008

Bollinger Bands inventor John Bollinger: World stock markets worst time has passed

At the event titled "金融海啸后的全球投资机会" in ShangHai on 6 November, renowned Bollinger Bands inventor John Bollinger expressed his confidence in the world stock markets. He thinks that the worst time for the world stock markets has passed and there are signs of recovery. He believes that the Hong Kong stock market has bottomed.

John Bollinger said at the event yesterday that he thinks that the world stock markets are near their bottom, although not barring the possiblility that some of them may still make new lows. But on the whole they should start to go upwards. He also mentioned that signs of recovery have started to appear and now could be the turning period from a short bear period to a bull period. Speaking on the Hong Kong stock market, he believes that it has bottomed and will not make new lows.

John Bollinger thinks that the stock market is the best tool for economy estimation. People now see the economy slowdown but in actual fact the stock market has reflected it 3 to 6 months ago. He stresses not to fight against the stock prices. He said that currently the stock market itself has noticed various stimulus policies and so now is the time to buy and not to sell.

He said that the bear market has passed and now there are a lot of cheap stocks waiting for us to pick. As for what types of stocks to buy, John Bollinger thinks that it is better to look at individual stocks rather then the stock market as the whole as the valuation for different types of stocks is not very balanced. Now we should be looking out for good listed companies. Speaking on Hong Kong stocks, he thinks that stocks also listed on other countries are worth having a look. John Bollinger explains that because the US and Europe are concerned about the Asia market, it can be said that Asia is an engine for economic recovery. Once any rebound occurs, those Asia companies listed in US and Europe will be his top picks.

Altough John Bollinger expressed his optimism on the world stock markets, he also said frankly that they are short term judgements. He expressed that during tradings, he goes the pratical way and thus most of the decisions are short term. He says that he does not not know what methods to use to judge a long term trend becuase there are too many affecting factors. He believes that short term trading is possible because now is the recovery period with big opportunities but cannot say that the problems troubling the world stock markets have gone. He says that fluctuations in the stock makets may continue, but only at such times that there will be profits and people can make good use of the stock market fluctuations.

John Bollinger introduced in details at the event on how to use the Bollinger Bands. He says that there is a 3 months study by 4 acadamics on the China stock market. They tested the accuracy of 4 techniques of technical analysis on the China stock market and the result is that the accuracy using the Bollinger Bands is the highest. He said that countries other than US are more suitable to use the Bollinger Bands analysis technique. Before China comes out with futures trading and other derivative products, the chances are better using the Bollinger Bands on the China stock market.

Talking about the future developments for Bollinger Bands, John Bollinger says that by the year end or the beginning of next year, there will be an introduction of an improved Bollinger Bands analysis so that people's investment can be more rational.

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