Tuesday, November 25, 2008

China to slow to 19-yr low

The Straits Times
Nov 25, 2008 | 12:20 PM
China to slow to 19-yr low
The World Bank predicts China's GDP to slow to around 7.5% in 2009.

BEIJING - CHINA'S gross domestic product growth is likely to slow to around 7.5 per cent in 2009, from 9.4 per cent this year, under the impact of the global credit crisis and continued weakness in real estate, the World Bank said on Tuesday.

The forecast, contained in the latest update by the bank's Beijing office on the Chinese economy, is down from the projection of 9.2 per cent in its previous report in June.

It would be the weakest GDP growth since 3.8 per cent in 1990; growth in 1999 was 7.6 per cent.

The bank welcomed the 4 trillion yuan (S$889 billion), 10-point stimulus package that Beijing unveiled this month and said government-influenced spending would account for more than half of next year's growth.

Net exports, by contrast, would lop 1 percentage point off growth in 2009 as overall imports substantially outpace exports, which the bank expects to grow just 3.5 per cent in real terms, down from 11.0 per cent growth this year.

It would be the first time in many years that net external trade has made a negative contribution to growth, the report said.

Mr David Dollar, the bank's country director for China, said the lender was talking to China about ways in which it could contribute some additional financing for the World Bank Group that would help developing countries.

'But that's at an early stage and there are really no more details to report at this time,' he told reporters. -- REUTERS

No comments: