Morgan Stanley: Economic crisis has reached 2nd half

Yesterday, Executive Director of Global Capital Markets at Morgan Stanley George Taylor at the 2nd 中怡领袖创见论坛 in BeiJing said that the global economic crisis has entered 2nd half.

He recalls that in the past economic crisis periods, the average decline cycle period for stock markets was about 27 months. In them, the decline brought about by the bursting of the internet bubble was longer. Counting from the peak in October last year, the stock market currently has only fallen 14 months. As such, a lot of people thinks that it will take at least 2 more years for the economic crisis to end. But he thinks that because of the various country's government quick measures and policies to save the market, the time needed for economic recovery will be shorten. From IPO issuance analysis, he thinks that investors attitudes towards new start-ups has shift from looking at growth potential to concerning about the company's ability to counter risks.

On the topic of exchange rate between the China RenMinBi and US dollar, George Taylor says that currently the exchange rate will remain as it is but in the future there will be room for appreciation for the RenMinBi.